000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUN 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N92W TO 09N100W TO 09N110W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N110W TO 09N117W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N123W TO 05N130W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 121W- 125W...AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 106W-127W WITH A MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW U.S. SW TO 25N117W AND SSE TO 20N117W TO 10N116W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE W OF THE RIDGE FROM 22N130W TO 16N128W AND SE TO 10N122W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM TROUGH HAS RECENTLY MOVED INLAND THE U.S. W COAST. NWLY FLOW BEHIND IT SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA S TO NEAR 26N AND E OF 132W AND HAS IMPINGED ON THE RIDGE ERODING ITS NRN PORTION. IN THE EASTERN PORTION...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM WRN TEXAS SSW TO 23N103W AND S TO 14N103W TO 08103W TO 01N103W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION W OF THE FAR EASTERN TROUGH. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SSW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE W OF LINE FROM 17N110W TO 10N127W TO 10N140W. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE E OF THE MID/LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AND BETWEEN BROAD SCALE UPPER RIDGING PRESENT N OF 09N E OF THE TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS ANCHORED OVER NW NICARAGUA. LONG TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND CURRENT IMAGERY APPEAR TO IDENTIFY AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 95W FROM 04N TO 08N MOVING W ABOUT 8 KT. THE TROUGH IS AIDING ALREADY PRESENT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OVER THIS PART OF THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA RESULTING IN CLUSTERING OF SCATTERED TO MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AND GULF OF PANAMA AND VICINITY IS MOVING SW IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER NE WINDS AROUND THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NW NICARAGUA. SLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND NRN HONDURAS. THESE CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NEWD TO OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NW OF THE REGION WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARDS THE U.S. W COAST DURING WED WITH ITS SRN TIER SEGMENT EXPANDING SW IN TO THE N CENTRAL FAR W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE FROM THE TROUGH BY WED EVENING NEAR 23N130W. THIS LOW WILL THEN SHIFT SW AND DEEPEN. THIS PROCESS SHOULD BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE TO ITS E WHICH WILL ACT TO DIFFUSE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM LARGE TROUGH ALOFT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N120W TO 26N140W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0540 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE 20 KT WINDS BOTH BEHIND AND SE OF THE FRONT TO 24N. THESE WINDS ARE NOT SO MUCH ATTRIBUTED TO THE ACTUAL FRONT...BUT TO A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT IS BRIDGING SEWD ACROSS THE FRONT. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 35N142W SEWD TO 28N127W AND TO NEAR 21N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 114W. THE 1030 HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ESE AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN INTO NEXT 48 HRS AS IT SHIFTS BACK TO THE W. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND NW MEXICO MEXICO...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS EXPECTED OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE FAR NE WATERS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN 24 HRS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA E OF 126W...AND LINGER INTO WED EVENING WITH SEAS THERE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 15 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE TROPICS WILL EXPAND THEN NE 20 KT TRADES BETWEEN A LINE FROM 23N117W TO 17N128W TO 08N140W AND LINE FROM 30N132W TO 27N140W IN 24 HRS WITH SEAS OF 9 FT...AND BETWEEN A LINE FROM 25N120W TO 18N130W TO 14N140W AND LINE FROM 30N130W TO 26N140W IN 48 HRS. A 1010 MB ILL-DEFINED LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR 09N123W MOVING W AT 10 KT. 20 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WWD TRACK ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE THROUGH WED EVENING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND THE NW SEMICIRCLE SOME DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 09N131W BY THEN...AND WHILE IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES. $$ AGUIRRE