000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N96W TO 9N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 9N119W TO 5N125W TO 5N131W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 121W. MONSSON TROUGH IS NOT IDENTIFIABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH LOCATED COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC N OF 32N BETWEEN 119W AND 139W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 132W S TO NEAR 27N. A RATHER STRONG LATE SPRING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N130W TO 27.5N140W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0600 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF THE FRONT. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND THE U.S. W COAST TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PULLING JUST TO THE NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHILE IT RAPIDLY DISSIPATES. TO THE SE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT N OF ABOUT 12N AND BETWEEN 109W AND 130W WITH ITS RIDGE CREST STRETCHING NNE TO ACROSS THE NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND FAR SRN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRESENT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA KEEPING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN PLACE. OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO S TO 24N105W AND SW TO 17N106W TO 9N109W. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH ITS ASSOCIATED ANTICYLONE CENTERED OVER NRN HONDURAS EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE ERN PART OF THE AREA TO E OF THE TROUGH. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PRESENT N OF 9N E OF 101W...AND FROM 3N TO 9N E OF 89W TO JUST INLAND COLOMBIA AIDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 94W FROM 6N TO 12N. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NWD TO OVER SE MEXICO AND NRN CENTRAL AMERICA. NE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE ARE ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS SW TO 3N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND THE WRN U.S. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PRESENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE SE PORTION E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH CENTER NW OF THE AREA AT 38N152W EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD THROUGH 32N141W TO ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT TO 25N131W TO 24N120W. THE 1030 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SE THROUGH WED WITH THE REINFORCING RIDGE BRIDGING OVER THE COLD FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE...RESULTING IN THE FRONT LOSING ITS IDENTITY. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES IN THE LOWER TROPICAL LATITUDES WILL ACT TO INDUCE N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER A VAST SECTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 23N124W TO 7N140W IN ABOUT 48 HRS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES IN NW MEXICO AND OVER THE SW U.S. WILL INDUCE NW-N 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR NE PART BY 24 HRS...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 23N E OF 124W BY 48 HRS WITH SEAS THERE 8 FT IN 24 HRS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT BY 48 HRS. THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE N OF 28N. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA AND E OF 125W BY 36 HRS...AND LAST INTO THE NEXT 48 HRS. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED AT 9N119W AT 0600 UTC IS MOVING W AT 7 KT. THE 0600 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED N-NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE NRN SECTOR OF THE LOW. CONVECTION WITH THIS LOW IS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WLY TRACK TO NEAR 9N122W IN 24 HRS...AND NEAR 9N126W IN 48 HRS WITH 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE IN 24 HRS AND EXPANDING TO WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE BY 48 HRS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE THROUGH 48 HRS AS IT REMAINS SURROUNDED BY A VERY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER W IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAMPERING IT FROM ACQUIRING ANY ORGANIZATION TO ITS CLOUD/CONVECTION STRUCTURE. $$ AGUIRRE