000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0715 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N103W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N117W TO 07N124W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A SHARP MID/UPPER NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS S TO A WEAK UPPER LOW AT 25N104W AND CONTINUES SSW TO TO 17N105W AND SW TO NEAR 08N110W. TO THE W OF TROUGH JUST ABOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRESENT TO THE W OF 100W...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N140W NE TO 24N129W. THESE CLOUDS ARE RIDING NEWD ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BROAD SCALE RIDGING IS OBSERVED TO THE N OF 05N. DEEP TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS SPREADING WWD AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO AS FAR AS W 98W. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THIS AREA. THIS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ABOUT STATIONARY BETWEEN BOTH RIDGE FEATURES. THE SRN PORTION OF A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS JUST NE OF THE AREA MOVING TOWARDS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT IS FOLLOWED BY WLY FOLLOW. A DEEPENING DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND IS QUICKLY ADVANCING EWD. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AS IT PASSES JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH ANALYZED AT 29N139W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE TO NEAR 21N118W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING 33N140W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 30N135W TO 29N140W IN 24 HRS...AND QUICKLY MOVE E WHILE DISSIPATING OVER THE FAR NE PORTION BY 48 HRS. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E AND SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EWD. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE TROPICS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE NE 20 KT TRADES FROM 07N TO 18N W OF 134W IN 24 HRS. AS THE HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO 48 HRS THE AREA GRADIENT IN THE WRN PORTION WILL TIGHTEN ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO EXPAND NWD. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0442 UTC LATE LAST NIGHT REVEALED NW TO 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA. THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS A RESULT OF THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE AND TROUGHING ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. SEAS THERE ARE UP TO 9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT THERE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. MIXED N AND S SWELLS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS OF 8 FT. THE WEAK 1010 MB LOW ON THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 8N117W REFERENCED UNDER THE ALOFT SECTION...IS MOVING W ABOUT 7 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT. RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SEEN AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS FANNING AWAY FROM THE LOW WITHIN 90-120 NM IN THE N SEMICIRLCE AND 180 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. THE THE LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO SE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS KEEPING THE CIRCULATION SOMEWHAT ELONGATED NE TO SW...AND THUS NO ORGANIZATION WILL BE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW IN A GENERAL W TO NW DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELLS ARE PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT ARE PRESENT S OF 7N BETWEEN 98W AND 111W. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST WITH THESE MARINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN DECAYING SWELLS ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE IN 36-48 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE