000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N83W TO 08N100W TO 08N117W TO 
06N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
06N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 06.5N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
08N82W TO 03N81W LINE AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 07N133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED ABOUT 300 NAUTICAL MILES W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
24N145W. A JET STREAM IS LOCATED THROUGH 20N140W TO 25N138W TO 
30N130W AND THEN TURNS E AND WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE JET IS STRONGEST W OF ABOUT 135W 
WITH SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 80 TO 90 KT. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 102W AND 130W. 
THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AT THE 
SURFACE A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 110W WITH THE AXIS 
LOCATED THROUGH 32N132W TO 16N112W. ALSO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 08N118W AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES 
SLOWLY W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE ARE FORECAST 
S OF ABOUT 05N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 105W IN 30 HOURS.   

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W 
TO 15N94W TO NEAR 11N98W. THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 11N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 98W. 

$$
CAB