000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300302
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 10N84W TO 09N94W TO 12N105W TO LOW PRES 
08N118W TO 06N124W. ITCZ AXIS 06N124W TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 
04N TO 08N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 
28N139W. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW 10 TO 15 KT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE 
LOCATED ON THE SE SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A JET STREAM 
POSITIONED THROUGH 18N140W TO 26N130W AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS A VAST AREA FROM NEAR 10N 
TO 32N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE N OF 18N INTO MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES BETWEEN 
100W AND 125W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS NEAR 20N112W AND WILL 
THEN MOVE W. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W 
OF 110W TO BEYOND 140W. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LOW NEAR 08N118W.

A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 10N96W. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 
10N ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 100W.

$$
CAB