000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 10N85W TO 09N96W TO 12N105W TO LOW PRES 
08N118W TO 06N124W. ITCZ AXIS 06N124W TO BEYOND 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 07N102W TO 03N100W LINE...WITHIN A 60 NM 
RADIUS OF 06.5N105.5W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
08N122W TO 06N126W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 
28N138W. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW 10 TO 15 KT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE 
LOCATED ON THE SE SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A JET STREAM 
POSITIONED THROUGH 18N140W TO 26N130W AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS A VAST AREA FROM NEAR 10N 
TO 32N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE N OF 18N INTO MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES BETWEEN 
100W AND 125W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS NEAR 20N112W. AT THE 
SURFACE A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W TO BEYOND 
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 08N118W IS LOCATED 
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 09N120W. 

A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 10N96W. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

$$
CAB