000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N86W TO 11N107W TO 
LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 09N111W TO 07N127W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 07N127W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED NEAR THE LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W 
AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY CUTS ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 
32N132W TO 21N140W WILL PINCH OFF A LOW JUST E OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS OVER NEXT THE TWO DAYS. THIS LOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO 
WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT THE SURFACE THAT IS ALSO BEING 
ENCROACHED UPON BY A SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY S OF THE ALEUTIAN 
ISLANDS. THE 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 33N157W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 30N130W TO 16N114W. THE HIGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED EASTWARD. THE TRADE WINDS 
WILL SHRINK SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST N OF THE ITCZ IN RESPONSE 
THROUGH WED...DIMINISHING TO A MODERATE BREEZE BY WED EVENING. 

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND TROUGHING 
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL MEXICO IS 
GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA N OF 26N AS OBSERVED BY SHIP 3EUS. THESE CONDITIONS 
WILL SHRINK NORTHWARD TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE THROUGH TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WED AS 
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND TROUGHING BUILDS IN THE 
U.S. SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...ALLOWING FRESH NW TO N 
WINDS TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO 25N.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 09N111W. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE SEEN IN 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS SYSTEM LIES UNDER THE DIFFLUENT REAR 
RIGHT QUADRANT OF 35-50 KT SOUTHERLY JET WHICH IS PROVIDING LIFT 
TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM 05N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 120W. THE 1948 UTC OSCAT AND 1736 UTC 
ASCAT BOTH OBSERVED FRESH N TO NE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR THE LOW. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W 
AROUND 10 KT BUT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER DRIER AND MORE 
STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WILL 
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
SCHAUER