000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N72W TO 10N85W 
TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10N104W TO 07N127W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 07N127W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTERED 
WNW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N152W THROUGH 30N133W TO 18N113W. A WEAK 
TROUGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA NEAR 40N122W TO 31N142W. THE PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FRESH NW WINDS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS TO 8 FT.
A LOW PRES AREA OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WEAKENING THE GRADIENT-INDUCED WINDS WEST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE WEAKENING HIGH WNW OF THE AREA WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD AS A 
CENTRAL PACIFIC LOW PRES SYSTEM PUSHES N OF THE HIGH. THE AREA OF
FRESH ENE TRADE WINDS S OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS WILL CONTRACT AND SHRINK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TUE EVENING 
IN RESPONSE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH PREVAIL E OF 110W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 10N104W. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE SEEN IN ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY A FEW DEGREES WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 108W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE-LIKE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE 
TO MOVE WWD AT 10-15 KT THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN ACTIVE 
CONVECTION UNTIL IT REACHES 115W... WHERE DRIER AND MORE STABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAILING THERE WILL INHIBIT ANY 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
MUNDELL