000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N72W TO 09N86W 
TO 12N99W LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 09N104W TO 08N105W TO 07N122W... 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON BEYOND 06N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N 
AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 114W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1030 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 
38N152W THROUGH 30N130W TO 16N107W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND N 
CENTRAL MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 24N. THIS LOW PRES AREA WILL SHIFT 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT 
AND THE WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRESH N WINDS WILL BE 
CONFINED TO N OF 28N BY MON EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE 
PERIOD TUE EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD AND 
WEAKEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ENCROACHES UPON IT FROM THE 
NW. FRESH TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA 
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 25N W OF 125W. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES 
WILL SHRINK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TUE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE 
CHANGES IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. 

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W TO CENTRAL 
AMERICA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 104W. MID 
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY A FEW 
DEGREES TO THE W...ALONG 106W/107W...SHIFTING W 10-15 KT. THIS 
WAVE LIKE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD DURING THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS...AND MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION UNTIL IT REACHES 
115W...WHERE DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS 
PREVAIL. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

$$
STRIPLING