000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES 
1009 MB NEAR 09N102W TO 07N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 
07N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES N OF THE 
AXIS TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W AND S OF THE AXIS TO 05N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 109W AS WELL AS WITHIN 45 NM N AND 90 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1032 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 
39N151W THROUGH 30N130W TO 17N114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND N 
CENTRAL MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N AS SEEN BY THE ASCAT PASS AT 1752 
UTC. THIS LOW PRES AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. FRESH N WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO N OF 28N BY MON 
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD TUE EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD AND 
WEAKENED AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ENCROACHES UPON IT FROM THE 
NW. FRESH TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL SHRINK 
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TUE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGES IN 
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. 

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05-10N W OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. APPROXIMATELY 20-25 
KT OF E-NE SHEAR OVER THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 09N102W IS 
SKEWING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW...WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND . CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE 
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS.

$$
SCHAUER