000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO WEAKENING LOW PRES 1009
MB NEAR 09N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N101W TO 08N124W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH 
OF THE TROUGH FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
AXIS IS CENTERED NEAR 10N102W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 10N101W...WHILE LOWEST PRESSURE IS NEAR
09N98W. ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY INDICATES VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION WITH THIS FEATURE. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ELSEWHERE ALONG 
05-10N W OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM 32N140W TO 32N127W 
THEN SE TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS PRODUCING FRESH TO 
STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT ARE 
GENERATING N-NW SWELL TO 9 FT W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LOW PRES IN 
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...WEAKENING THE 
PRES GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT WINDS AND 
SEAS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 39N153W WILL WEAKEN AND BE 
FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A WARM FRONT MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
WHICH WILL WEAKEN NE TRADES IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. 
EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE TRADES CURRENTLY FROM 15N TO 28N W 
OF 120W TO CONTRACT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH TUE. WINDS AND
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH PRES GRADIENT S OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND 
N OF THE ITCZ WILL DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE REGION AS A RESULT.

$$
MUNDELL