000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD NEAR 20.6N 105.8W 1006 MB MOVING N OR 
350 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. THIS 
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS DUE TO 
LAND INTERACTION AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE BY SUN MORNING.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 08N95W 
1009 MB TO 10N104W TO 08N118W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N118W
TO 05N134W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 08N95W IS LOCATED FROM 
04N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
35N150W TO AROUND 25N117W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND 
LOW PRES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE NNW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH IN 
TURN IS GENERATING 10-12 FT N-NW SWELL S OF 30N BETWEEN 118W AND 
124W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATED A RIBBON OF HIGHER
SEAS EXISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 
12-13 FT...MOST LIKELY RESULTING FROM COMBINED EFFECTS OF SWELL 
GENERATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH WINDS N 
OF THE AREA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT SEAS W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING 
OF BUD. ASCAT DATA FROM 0406 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SSW WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF 
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN 
REGION CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. GFS MODEL SHOWS NW WINDS INCREASING 
TO 20-25 KT SUN MORNING WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... 
WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 8-9 FT IN THE NE 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT AND SUN. FRESH TRADE WINDS
S OF THE HIGH ARE SUPPORTING 7-8 FT SEAS IN NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS WITH SEAS 
SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6-7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH AN ACTIVE BUT POORLY ORGANIZED ITCZ/ MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 
ALONG 05-10N W OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SEAS 6 FT OR LESS ARE 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON MORNING. 

$$
MUNDELL