000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE BUD IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.6W MOVING N AT 6 KT. MAX 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRES IS 975 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE CYCLONE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE 
HURRICANE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY SEVERAL HOURS AGO... AND IS 
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
AN EYE FEATURE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION 
HAS DECREASED. BUD WILL WEAKEN FURTHER PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS IT 
ENCOUNTERS A STABLE DRY ENVIRONMENT. RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR 
AFTER LANDFALL AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE 
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL 
MOUNTAINS OF JALISCO...COLIMA AND MICHOACAN STATES IN MEXICO CAN 
EXPECT RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BUD TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL 
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOUR AS BUD APPROACHES. SEE THE LATEST 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS 
ON HURRICANE BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 08N86W TO 10N100W... 
THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE BUD FROM 12N110W TO 07N122W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07122W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND E OF 81W...AND FROM 06N TO 
11N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N150W 
TO AROUND 19N125W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW 
PRES OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE NLY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH IN TURN IS GENERATING 13-14 FT 
N-NW SWELL SWEEPING S OF 30N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. THE HIGH IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SAT MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS 
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PUSHES S OF 40N. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS THE
PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RELAX...WITH WINDS AND 
SEAS N OF THE AREA STARTING TO DIMINISH AS A RESULT. EXPECT SEAS 
TO REMAIN 10-12 FT N OF 24N E OF 125W THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN 
SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT SAT THROUGH SUN. GFS/WW3 MODEL SHOWS NW WINDS 
INCREASING TO OVER 20 KT BY SUN MORNING WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 8-9 
FT IN THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS WEEKEND. FRESH 
TRADE WINDS S OF THE HIGH ARE SUPPORTING 7-8 FT SEAS IN THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO 
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA 
WEAKENS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 6-7 FT BY SAT. 
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED ITCZ/
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 05-10N W OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SEAS 6 
FT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND AFTER HURRICANE BUD MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. 

$$
MUNDELL