000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242109
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE BUD AT 16.4N 106.4W AS OF 24/2100 UTC MOVING NE AT 8 
KT. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT...AND 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 962 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 
90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF BUD.
BUD IS LOOKING VERY ORGANIZED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A 
BROAD WELL DEFINED EYE AND IS NEAR SYMMETRICAL IN APPEARANCE. 
BUD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 
12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ON A GENERAL NE TRACK. THE CENTER OF 
BUD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR OR WEST OF 
MANZANILLO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. LARGE SWELL FROM THE STORM 
WILL BE REACHING THE COAST IN THIS AREA BY LATE TODAY. INTERESTS 
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO AND 
COLIMA SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS 
BUD APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SEE LATEST TROPICAL 
CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON 
HURRICANE BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM PANAMA AT 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 13N92W. 
MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 12N110W TO 07N125W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 77W AND 87W. 

...DISCUSSION...
1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 37N136W. A 998 MB LOW IS INLAND 
OVER S CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N114W. THE TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N 
OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND 
SEAS TO 15 FT ARE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA 
FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  
 
FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHILE NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
ANY SIGN OF FRESH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...EVERY GLOBAL 
MODEL INITIALIZES WITH 20 KT SW TO W FLOW N OF 30N AND MAINTAINS 
IT THROUGH LATE FRI...UNTIL THE DEEP LOW PRES OVER S CALIFORNIA 
LIFTS OUT. 

WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 117W 
AND 122W. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MODEST AT BEST TO 
SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION...GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS SHOW A WEAK 
MID LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING WESTWARD IN THIS AREA THAT IS LIKELY 
AIDING THE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE W OF 115W...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
REMAINS MINIMAL AND NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

E OF 100W...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MORE NUMEROUS...NAMELY N OF 02N E OF 
95W. SIMILAR TO THE CONVECTION NEAR 120W...TOGA BUOY AND ASCAT 
DATA SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO BE MINIMAL. WHILE MODERATE NE 
TO E FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALSO DO NOT OFFER MUCH SUPPORT TO 
THE UNSTABLE WEATHER...GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AGAIN SHOW A WEAK 
PERTURBATION IN THE MID LEVELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND 
ECMWF INITIALIZATIONS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS W TO ABOUT 
100W BY LATE SAT. 

$$
FORMOSA