000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE BUD AT 15.7N 106.7W AS OF 24/1500 UTC MOVING NNE AT 7 
KT. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT...AND 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 970 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 
90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF BUD.
BUD IS LOOKING VERY ORGANIZED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A 
BROAD WELL DEFINED EYE AND IS NEAR SYMMETRICAL IN APPEARANCE. 
BUD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 
12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ON A GENERAL NE TRACK. THE CENTER 
OF BUD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
MANZANILLO BY 26/00 UTC BEFORE STALLING AND TURNING WEST. LARGE 
SWELL FROM THE STORM WILL BE REACHING THE COAST IN THIS AREA BY 
LATE TODAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN THE MEXICAN 
STATES OF JALISCO AND COLIMA SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE POTENTIAL 
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS BUD APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS. SEE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON HURRICANE BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO 14N93W. MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES 
FROM 12N111W TO 08N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N111W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS N OF 20N W OF 118W...BETWEEN A 
1034 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N145W...AND DEEP LOW PRES OVER 
THE SW UNITED STATES WITH TROUGHING ALONG GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
STRONGER WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...GENERATING NORTHERLY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS 12 TO 16 FT 
MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING 
SE INTO THE OREGON COAST WILL REINFORCE AND AMPLIFY THE MID AND 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG FLOW 
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO SAT...DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE 
SW STATES WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 20N TO 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WHILE THE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL DECAY AS IT 
PUSHES SOUTH...CONSENSUS OF WAVEWATCH/ECWAVE/UKWAVE INDICATE 
NORTH SWELL TO 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N BETWEEN 115W 
AND 130W BY LATE SAT. 

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHILE NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
ANY SIGN OF FRESH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...EVERY GLOBAL 
MODEL INITIALIZES WITH 20 KT SW TO W FLOW N OF 30N AND MAINTAINS 
IT THROUGH LATE FRI...UNTIL THE DEEP LOW PRES N OF THE AREA 
LIFTS OUT. 

WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 117W 
AND 122W. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MODEST AT BEST TO 
SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION...GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS SHOW A WEAK 
MID LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING WESTWARD IN THIS AREA THAT IS LIKELY 
AIDING THE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE W OF 115W...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
REMAINS MINIMAL AND NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

E OF 100W...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MORE NUMEROUS...NAMELY N OF 02N E OF 
95W. SIMILAR TO THE CONVECTION NEAR 120W...TOGA BUOY AND ASCAT 
DATA SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO BE MINIMAL. WHILE MODERATE NE 
TO E FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALSO DO NOT OFFER MUCH SUPPORT TO 
THE UNSTABLE WEATHER...GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AGAIN SHOW A WEAK 
PERTURBATION IN THE MID LEVELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND 
ECMWF INITIALIZATIONS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS W TO ABOUT 
100W BY LATE SAT. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN