000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE BUD AT 14.7N 107.6W AS OF 24/0900 UTC MOVING N AT 6 
KT.  BUD DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND 
DVORAK ESTIMATES YIELDED SUSTAINED 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT 
WIND SPEEDS.  CENTRAL PRES FELL QUICKLY TO 980 MB AS CYCLONE 
TURNED INTO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW 
ALIGNED TRACK AND TIMING INTO A MORE COHESIVE SOLUTION BRINGING 
BUD VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST S OF CABO 
CORRIENTES.  BUD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE 
NEXT 24-30 HRS UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST AND LOW WIND 
SHEAR.  AFTER THAT TIME SHEAR BEGINS INCREASING AND AT THAT 
POINT GUIDANCE DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN INTENSITY...TRACK AND 
TIMING.  WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE BUD REMAIN OVER WATER MISSING 
LAND OR MAKING IT INLAND AS A MUCH WEAKENED SYSTEM...ITS 
PRESENT STRENGTH AND POSITION WARRANTS ADVISORIES FOR THE COAST 
OF MEXICO.  IN ADDITION TO THE CYCLONIC WIND THREAT...EVEN A 
WEAKENED BUD COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER COASTAL 
MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.  SEE LATEST TROPICAL 
CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON 
HURRICANE BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
NO IDENTIFIABLE MONSOON TROUGH NOTED.  ITCZ AXIS FROM 11N110W TO 
08N118W TO 07N131W TO BEYOND 05N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS NOTED OVER MOST OF BASIN N OF 20N 
AND ALSO W OF 120W.  MOST OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH HURRICANE BUD.  WELL STRUCTURED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT 
HAS ALLOWED BUD TO INTENSIFY AND INCREASE ITS CONVECTION AS THE 
CENTER SLIPPED UNDER CLOUD CANOPY AND SHOWED AN EYE FEATURE 
EARLIER THIS MORNING.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF BASIN E OF 
100W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES AT 1034 MB NW OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 16N114W. 
RIDGE TIGHTENS GRADIENT TO PROMPT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG COAST 
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SEEPING AS 
FAR S AS 25N.  IT ALSO PRESSES AGAINST ITCZ AXIS TO THE S WITH 
FRESH NE BREEZE N OF 20N W OF 130W.  HIGH PRES CENTER EXPECTED 
TO DRIFT NW TODAY AND FRI DIMINISHING WINDS BY END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD.

NW SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF BASIN 
SPREAD S ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT 
N OF 28N E OF 120W.

$$
WALLY BARNES