000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED MAY 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED AT 13.9N 107.8W OR ABOUT 420 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AS OF 23/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 05 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP AND IS 995 MB AS OF THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE WITH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL AS BANDING FEATURES BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS THEY WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT...150 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT AND 120 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. A LOW SHEAR UPPER ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED BUD TO GATHER INTENSITY SINCE TUE EVENING. THE 21 UTC NHC ADVISORY HAS BUD INTENSIFYING INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS NE. IT IS THEN EXPECTED THAT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMES LESS SUPPORTIVE OF IT STRENGTHENING FURTHER THU EVENING...AND SO IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM BUD. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 06N95W TO 12N97W WHERE IT ENDS. ITS THEN RESUMES AT 12N109W TO 06N124W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 04N132W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 96W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF BUD WITH A RIDGE NW TO NEAR A COL REGION AT 26N126W. TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE JUST TO THE W AND NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN A REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN ARE ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FAR NW MEXICO WSW TO NEAR 26N121W. THIS TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE PRONOUNCED SWD DIGGING TROUGH ALONG FROM ALONG THE W COAST OF THE U.S. AND INTO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS FORCING THE REX BLOCK TO SHIFT MORE TO THE W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND TROPICAL STORM BUD. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NW OF THE AREA AT 34N142W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 24N130W TO NEAR 20N118W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS ALLOWING FOR NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO BE N OF 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 133W. NE 20 KT WINDS ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 28N AND A LINE FROM 20N124W TO 16N130W TO 06N140W. THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH THE AREA OF N TO N WINDS ALSO SHIFTING N...AND IS FORECAST TO BE N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. N SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM A GALE WIND AREA JUST N OF THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL PROPAGATE S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH 8 TO 13 FT REACHING AS FAR S AS 21N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W IN 24 HOURS. THE HIGHEST SEAS SHOULD BE N OF ABOUT 27N. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...DUE TO MAINLY WEAK SW CONVERGENCE. WINDS MAY REACH TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...BETWEEN A STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. $$ AGUIRRE