000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BUD AT 13.3N 106.5W AT 23/0900 UTC MOVE NW AT 10 
KT.  CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
OF 35 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KT.  BUD HAS A LARGE CLUSTER OF 
NUMEROUS DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS W...LIKELY HINTING AN INCREASE 
IN EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT...AND SCATTERED TSTMS IN BANDS IN OTHER 
QUADRANTS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY 
POSSIBLY DUE TO THE STORMS SLOW PACE.  WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS...HINDERING ITS CHANCES OF 
REACHING HURRICANE FORCE STRENGTH.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS 
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY BUD THROUGHOUT NEXT 36-48 HRS THEN REMAIN 
DIVERSE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK GIVING FORECAST QUITE 
UNCERTAIN HANDLE.  FORECAST RELIES MORE ON THE ENSEMBLE KEEPING 
BUD CLOSEST TO COAST OF MEXICO IN 72 HRS...ASSUMING THE STORM 
HOLDS AGAINST THE ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT.  SEE LATEST TROPICAL 
CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON 
TROPICAL STORM BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 086N91W TO 11N100W.  IT 
RESUMES FROM 09N111W TO 05N121W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS E OF 82W.  MOST OTHER CONVECTION ALONG AXIS IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH TROPICAL STORM BUD. 

...DISCUSSION...
LAID DOWN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 28N111W TO 23N140W MAINTAINS 
DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS N OF 20N AND ALSO W OF 120W.  MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITS ABOVE T.S. BUD ALLOWING GOOD 
OUTFLOW TO ENHANCE NUMEROUS TSTMS MAINLY IN W QUADRANT OF BUD.
STRONGER W-SW WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH MAY DRIFT 
FURTHER S THU...INTERRUPT SMOOTH OUTFLOW...HINDERING ANY CHANCE 
OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BY BUD.  ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO MONSOON TROUGH FOR MORE CONVECTION E OF 
120W...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF ANY UPLIFT 
MECHANISMS TO PROMPT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB AT 34N142W EXTEND RIDGE E TO 17N117W 
PROMPTING GALE FORCE WINDS AGAINST SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  
SOME FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 14 FT SEEP S OF 30N  
E OF 125W,  FRESH NE BREEZE WITH 9 FT SEAS ALSO AFFECT WATERS 
N OF 14N W OF 127W.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRESH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD 
BE BELOW 20 KT BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE