000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 105.0W AT 22/2100 UTC 
...OR ABOUT 455 NM SSW OF ZIHUANTANEJO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 12 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT EARLIER WAS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW BENEATH AN INCREASING CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION THAT REPRESENT AND APPARENT SMALL CDO
TYPE FEATURE. OVERALL...BUD IS SHOWING ORGANIZATION WITH 
IN ITS CLOUD/CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE
READILY EVIDENT IN THE W SEMICIRCLE WITH ONE NOTABLE OUTER
BAND IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION CONSISTS OF NUMEROUS TO 
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM IN THE SW
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W...AND MARKS THE OUTER
BAND IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BAND THERE FROM 11N96W TO 13N100W TO 14N103W.

BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE RELAXED VERTICAL SHEAR 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS ALLOWING
FOR IT TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...EVENTUALLY TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE
IN ABOUT OR AT 48 HOURS AS BEGINS TO TURN NE TOWARDS THE COAST
OF MEXICO. SEE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 
KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...AN ACTIVE 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N87W TO 12N96W WHERE IT 
ENDS. IT RESUMES FROM 10N108W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N115W AND TO 
06N125W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM 06N125W TO BEYOND THE AREA 
AT 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 15N88W W TO OVER 
TROPICAL STORM BUD AND NW TO 19N124W. BUD IS CURRENTLY 
UNDER...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE MORE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT PORTION 
OF THE THE RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE IT WITH MORE OF 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR IT TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 
24-48 HRS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION 
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING FOR STABLE 
LOW-LEVEL TO SURFACE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AS NOTED BY BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH NW OF THE
AREA AT 33N143W SE TO NEAR 20N120W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT N OF 
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS MOMENTUM WILL CARRY
SWD INTO THE AREA AS NW TO N 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 24 HRS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 118W AND 127W WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 14 FT 
THERE IN ABOUT 48 HRS.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS IS SUPPORTING 
20-30 KT N TO NE WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT TONIGHT...AND TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT JUST INLAND
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC RELAXES.

$$
AGUIRRE