000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221631
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 104.0W...MOVING WNW AT 
11 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD 
MASS...AN INDICATION MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PREVENTING THE 
LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS FROM ALIGNING AT THIS POINT. 
DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CONTINUE TO 
INCREASE...AND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BUD IS EXPECTED 
TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...AND TRACK 
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM NW QUADRANT...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ELSEWHERE. SEE LATEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS 
ON TROPICAL STORM BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N90W TO 
TROPICAL STORM BUD...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N108W TO 06N123W. ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE AXIS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W ACROSS TROPICAL STORM BUD 
TO NEAR 10N115W. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 
17N111W. THIS AREA OF BROAD SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS WELL AS 
TROPICAL STORM BUD. 

A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 
31N142W TO NEAR 20N115W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT N OF THE AREA IS 
MAINTAINING NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST... 
WHICH IS PRODUCING N-NW SWELL S OF 30N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
THU...AND AS A RESULT EXPECT N-NW SWELL TO STEADILY BUILD TO A 
MAX OF 12-14 FT THROUGH THU EVENING N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W-130W.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHIVELAS PASS IS SUPPORTING 
20-30 KT N TO NE WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL