000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION IN CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION CONFIRMS 
THE UPGRADE TO TROPICAL STORM BUD EARLY THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH 
IT STILL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH...BUD IS EXPECTED TO 
TURN MORE TO THE NW THEN N AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO.  
ITS SLOW PACE AND WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ADD 
UNCERTAINTY TO THE THREATENED COASTAL AREAS.  DEEP CONVECTION 
HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE LAST THREE HOURS AND CIRCULATION BECOME 
MORE EVIDENT.  TROPICAL STORM BUD MOVES W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 6 KT 
WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRES OF 1004 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
35 WITH GUSTS 45 KT.  MODERATE DIVERGING WIND FLOW OVER BUD AND 
SST ABOVE 29 DEGREES PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE 
INTENSIFICATION.  IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH WITHIN NEXT 36 HOURS ALLOWING BUD TO REACH HURRICANE 
STRENGTH.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM NW QUADRANT. 
SEE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TROPICAL STORM BUD CONTINUES TO 
06N122W THEN ITCZ TO 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 95W TO 101W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 18N145W HAS TROUGH CUT NE THROUGH BASIN 
TO 32N117W KEEPING A VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS W OF 120W N OF 
17N.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 17N109W HAS RIDGE EXTEND 
OVER SE PORTION OF E PAC S OF 20N E OF 117W.  DIVERGENT FLOW 
ALOFT AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WIND SHEAR S OF RIDGE ENHANCES 
MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION AND MAINTAINS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
OVER RECENTLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM BUD.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
N TO NE WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE REACHED GALE FORCE 
AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FORCES WIND ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS.  WINDS 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

HIGH PRES 1028 MB AT 30N142W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 17N106W FORCING 
GALE FORCE WINDS AGAINST CALIFORNIA COAST N OF 30N.  MODERATE TO 
FRESH BREEZE SPILL INTO BASIN N OF 27N E OF 125W.

$$
WALLY BARNES