000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OVERALL THE 
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REORGANIZING MORE TO THE W OF THE EARLIER
POSITION WHERE THE CONVECTION IS SHOWING A BANDING TYPE PATTERN.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 8 KT...WITH A 
MINIMUM CENTER PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
CONTINUE AT 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 KT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDING 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEPRESSION...YIELDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION...WARM SST...PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION 
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUAL COME INTO PHASE WITH THE BROADER 
CIRCULATION IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND IS FORECAST TO 
THEN ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A 
HURRICANE BY ABOUT 48 HRS. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS THE 
DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY WED MORNING.
THAT THE  SCATTERED STRONG TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST TROPICAL 
CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM FROM 15N92W TO 11N99W TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E...AND CONTINUES TO 09N113W TO 06N123W WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES TO 04N131W 
TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH NW CORNER OF BASIN FROM 30N130W 
TO DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AT 18N141W. VERY DRY AND GENERALLY 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS COVER EXTENSIVE PART OF BASIN N OF 20N AND 
ALSO W OF 115W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MOST OF THE 
AREA S OF ABOUT 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 
15N90W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WIND SHEAR S 
OF THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEEP CONVECTION. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLED S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 105W. PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND OTHER CONVECTION TO ITS S CONTINUE TO AID 
IN ENHANCING DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALLOWING TO SUSTAIN THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE.

FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE
INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DUE TO PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
RIDGE IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGH OVER E COAST OF 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT 
18 HRS...WHILE SPREADING WWD ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TWO-E AS IT UNDERGOES INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED
BY THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY.

A 1026 MB HIGH IS IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN 29N139W
WITH A WEAK RIDGE SE TO NEAR 21N120W. IT IS KEEPING STRATIFIED 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS N OF 10N AND W OF 
120W. THE HIGH WILL REORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 
24-36 HRS AND ACT TO FRESHEN THE TRADEWINDS FROM OFFSHORE OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO SW PORTIONS...WITH NW TO N GALE FORCE WINDS
JUST N OF THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA.

$$
AGUIRRE