000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OVERALL THE 
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS NOTED IN THE DEVELOPING
BANDING TYPE FEATURES AROUND THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT...WITH A MINIMUM CENTER PRESSURE OF
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE AT 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 
KT...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS TO 11 FT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDING 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEPRESSION...YIELDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ALL
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION...WARM SST...PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION 
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUAL COME INTO PHASE WITH THE BROADER 
CIRCULATION IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND IS FORECAST TO 
THEN ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A 
HURRICANE BY ABOUT 36 HRS. SCATTERED STRONG TO NUMEROUS 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IN THE NW 
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS 
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W. SEE LATEST TROPICAL 
CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM FROM 14N91W TO 10N100W THEN 
SEPARATES ACROSS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E...AND CONTINUES FROM 
08N104W TO 06N113W TO 06N124W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE 
ITCZ...AND CONTINUES TO 05N131W AND TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 98W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 106W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF HE ITCZ W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH NW CORNER OF BASIN FROM 30N130W 
TO DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AT 18N141W. VERY DRY AND GENERALLY 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS COVER EXTENSIVE PART OF BASIN N OF 20N AND 
ALSO W OF 115W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MOST OF THE 
AREA S OF ABOUT 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED
NEAR 15N90W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
SHEAR S OF THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLED S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 105W. PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND OTHER CONVECTION TO ITS S CONTINUE
TO AID IN ENHANCING DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALLOWING TO SUSTAIN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING...DUE TO PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN RIDGE IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGH OVER E COAST 
OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN 
BRIEFLY TO GALE FORCE IN  LATER THIS EVENING...AND INTO
TUE MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD WWD ALONG THE N PERIPHERY 
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E AS IT UNDERGOES INTENSIFICATION
INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT AND FURTHER STRENGTHENS
TO A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HRS AS FORECAST IN THE LATEST
NHC ADVISORY.

A 1027 MB HIGH IS IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN 29N139W
WITH A WEAK RIDGE SE TO NEAR 21N120W. ITS IS KEEPING STRATIFIED 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS N OF 10N AND W OF 
120W. THE HIGH WILL REORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 
24-36 HRS AND ACT TO FRESHEN THE TRADEWINDS FROM OFFSHORE OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO SW PORTIONS.  

$$
AGUIRRE