000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND WITHIN A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SOME 
500 NM WIDE. THE CENTER OR THE DEPRESSION IS DISPLACED WITHIN 
THE NE PORTION OF THE BROADER SCALE CIRCULATION...MOVING W OR 
270 DEG AT 7 KT. MINIMUM CENTER PRESSURE REMAINS 1005 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE NEAR 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 KT... 
AND MAXIMUM SEAS TO 11 FT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDING PREVAILS 
ACROSS THE DEPRESSION...YIELDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ALL FACTORS 
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...WARM SST...PLENTY OF 
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL 
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUAL COME INTO PHASE 
WITH THE BROADER CIRCULATION IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND 
IS FORECAST TO THEN ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO QUICKLY 
DEVELOP INTO A HURRICANE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG ARE OCCURRING IN BANDS WITHIN 270 NM NW AND 120 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF T.D. TWO-E. SEE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY 
WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
TWO-E.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 07.5N76W TO 08N89W...WHERE IT HAS 
SEVERED FROM REST OF TROUGH...THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 12.5N93W TO 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E AT 9.2N101.0W TO 07N107W TO 
06.5N117W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 
06N129W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N 
AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF S TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH NW CORNER OF BASIN FROM 30N130W 
TO DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AT 18N141W. VERY DRY AND GENERALLY 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS COVER EXTENSIVE PART OF E PAC N OF 20N AND 
ALSO W OF 115W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS 
THE EPAC...S HALF OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FAR W 
CARIBBEAN...CENTERED ON TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE WELL DEFINED 
ANTICYCLONE AT 18N109W...AND A SECOND SMALLER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
15N90W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WIND SHEAR S 
OF THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEEP CONVECTION. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLED S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE IN CLUSTERS ACROSS THIS VERY 
UNSTABLE REGION...FURTHER ENHANCING DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND 
AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

..AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE 
INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT THIS MORNING...DUE TO PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN RIDGE IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGH OVER E COAST 
OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN 
BRIEFLY TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING...AND 
EXTEND WWD ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
TWO-E...AS IT INTENSIFIES TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

COLLAPSING 1022 MB HIGH PRES ALONG THE N BORDER OF THE BASIN 
NEAR 29N136W EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE TO 18N112W KEEPING STRATIFIED 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS N OF 10N AND W OF 
120W. THE HIGH WILL REORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 
24-36 HRS AND ACT TO FRESHEN THE TRADEWINDS FROM OFFSHORE OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO SW PORTIONS.  

$$
STRIPLING