000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142219
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 107.3W 1006 MB 
AT 2100 UTC MAY 14 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE 
CONCENTRATED AND UNIFORM IN DISTRIBUTION IN THE NW QUADRANT IN 
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE CDO PATTERN 
DEVELOPING. ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE WEST ARE EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 48 HOURS...SO THERE 
IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE TONIGHT AND 
PEAK NEAR 45 KT TUE MIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING COMMENCES. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N88W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N91.5W 
1008 MB TO 09N101W...WHERE T.D. ONE-E HAS SEPARATED FROM 
TROUGH...THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 07N106W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N121W 
1008 MB...THEN ITCZ FROM 04.5N124W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED 
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED BOTH 
N AND S OF TROUGH FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 84W AND 104W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM 
N AND 30 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 136W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HOLDING ITS POSITION FROM NEAR 
20N119W NWD TO ABOUT 31N WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN A SHARP 
LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTING W OF 140W SHIFTS NE THROUGH TROUGH. 
TROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SE CONTINUES ALONG AND N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...WITH UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N88.5W...AND HAS 
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WWD PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO WWD SHIFTING 
DEEP CONVECTIVE OUTBURST CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 90W. LIGHT 
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ALONG S SIDE OF RIDGE PROVIDING FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE GROWTH. RIDGE EXTENDS NE ACROSS 
W CARIB TO BEYOND THE BAHAMAS...AND W-NW TO NEAR 17N116W.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB AT 28N131W EXTENDS 
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N110W.  PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTER AND WEAK 
LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG 
NW BREEZE TO 25 KT ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST S TO 24N WITH 
SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NW AND 
REORGANIZE JUST N OF AREA DURING THE 48 HOURS...AND WILL 
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NWLY WINDS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE 
N OF 28N INTO THE WEEKEND. 

STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND A WAVE LIKE 
FEATURE ALONG ABOUT 90W IN THE EPAC ARE COMBINING TO MAINTAIN 
STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS CHIVELA PASS AND THROUGH GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS INCREASED TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT AND THIS 
MORNING...BUT HAVE SINCE DROPPED BELOW GALE...AND WILL DIMINISH 
TO A NARROW PLUME OF 20-25 KT BY 24 HOURS...AND PERSIST THROUGH 
48 HOURS.  

FRESH ELY WINDS OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DIMINISHED TO A SMALL 
PLUME OF 20 KT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 
20 KT THIS EVENING.

A WAVE LIKE DISTURBANCE ALONG ABOUT 90W HAS SHOWN SOME MIDDLE 
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS 
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION FOR 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY WWD.

$$
STRIPLING