000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1006 MB AT 9.8N105.9W HAS BECOME THE FIRST TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION OF THE 2012 E PAC SEASON...ONE DAY AHEAD OF THE 
OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON FOR THE BASIN.  
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND SYSTEM HAS BETTER TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION THAN EARLIER...ALTHOUGH THE TITLE MAY BE SHORT 
LIVED AS ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASE IN SW SHEAR ALOFT AFTER 36 HRS 
AND THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF SST ABOVE 29 DEG QUICKLY LOWER THE 
WATERS HEAT CONTENT THAT SUPPLIES ITS ENERGY.  WINDS EXPECTED TO 
REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATE TONIGHT OR TUE MOSTLY ON ITS 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE STRONG TO NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ON 
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N96W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
ONE-E AT 9.8N105.9W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 07120W THEN ITCZ TO 
03N140W AND BEYOND.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 360 NM N AND 300 NM S OF AXIS E OF 100W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ITS POSITION AS SHARP 
LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF 140W SHIFT MORE TO THE NE.  SW WIND FLOW 
AHEAD OF TROUGH ADVECTS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE W OF 130W.  
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR WITH RIDGE CREST 
COVERING BASIN E OF 110W.  DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED 
WITH RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG 
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E. 

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB AT 28N132W EXTENDS 
RIDGE SE TO 15N110W.  PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTER AND WEAK LOW 
PRES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE 
ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.  HIGH PRES 
FORECAST TO MOVE N OF AREA DURING WITHIN 48 HOURS.  ACCORDINGLY 
...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THEN.  
SIMILARLY...FRESH NE TRADES W OF 125W EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT AFTER 24 HRS AS HIGH PRES MOVES N.   

STATIONARY FRONT OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE FORCES STRONG N WINDS 
ACROSS CHIVELA PASS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  WINDS EXPECTED BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TODAY BUT TO 
REMAIN AT 20-30 KT LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT 
LATE TUE NIGHT. 

FRESH ELY WINDS OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE 
TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRES JUST W OF GULF SHIFT W AWAY FROM AREA.

$$
WALLY BARNES