000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130251
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N93W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 
10N105W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 09N115W TO 06N120W THEN ITCZ TO 
04N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W AND 
FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS POSITIONED AT 32N132W AND IS MOVING NE. THE CIRCULATION HAS 
A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 12 DEGREES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO 
ACCELERATE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY 
WINDS ALOFT WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A 32N120W TO 20N125W TO 
10N140W LINE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO 
AND ALSO IN THE LARGE AREA S OF 25N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 120W. AT 
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N128W. 
ALSO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N136W. 

WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY LIGHT E OF 100W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND SOUTH AMERICA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR 
LOOP WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. ONE IS AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A 08N100W TO 11N105W LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 1009 MB LOW 
AT 10N105W. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS FORECAST IN 18 HOURS 
WITH WINDS NE 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT.

$$
CAB