000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 11N95W TO A 1008 MB LOW AT 
10N105W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 09N114W TO 06N119W AND THEN 
CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ TO 04N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A 06N80W TO 04N87W LINE...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
07N91W TO 07N99W LINE...AND FROM 07 TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 
113W.  

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS POSITIONED AT 30N133W AND IS MOVING NE. THE CIRCULATION HAS 
A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 12 DEGREES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO 
ACCELERATE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A 
32N125W TO 20N125W TO 10N140W LINE AT DAY TWO. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF 
MEXICO AND ALSO IN THE LARGE AREA S OF 25N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 
120W. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N128W. ALSO A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N137W. 

WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY LIGHT E OF 100W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND SOUTH AMERICA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR 
LOOP WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. ONE IS AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A 09N99W TO 12N104W LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 1008 MB LOW 
AT 10N105W. ANOTHER IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 10N117W IN ASSOCIATION WITH 
THE 1009 MB LOW AT 09N114W. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS 
FORECAST IN 24 HOURS WITH WINDS NE 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$
CAB