000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N77W TO 05.5N81W TO 09.5N110W TO 07N128W 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 06.5N133W TO 
BEYOND 05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 92W. SCATTERED TO 
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N 
AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE TO UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N147W IS APPROACHING W BOUNDARY 
OF BASIN AND CONTINUES TO NUDGE DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EASTWARD...PRESENTLY CENTERED ALONG 125-130W AND N OF 
21N.  CYCLONE FORECAST TO LIFT NE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TO 
NUDGE RIDGE EWD AND WEAKEN IT...WITH RIDGE REACHING ALONG 120W 
BY SUN MORNING. DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE...VIGOROUS CUT OFF LOW 
CONTINUES TO DRIFT E ACROSS EXTREME N MEXICO AND INTO FAR W 
TEXAS...IGNITING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE E ACROSS 
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING E THROUGH FRI 
BEFORE EJECTING NE AND WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND. TWO BROAD 
TROPICAL RIDGES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA S OF THESE FEATURES... 
ONE ALONG 135-140W AND S OF 18N...WITH A SECOND BROAD RIDGE 
ANCHORED ON AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N94W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING E INTO EXTREME SW CARIB. WIDESPREAD ACTIVE CONVECTION 
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 120W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DIVERGENT 
FLOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND IS AIDING IN 
MAINTAINING THE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS RIDGING 
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED E OF 105-110W THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
A 1035 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF AREA NEAR 43N132W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE S-SE TO 29N129W THEN SE TO 18N108W. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS 
RELAXED ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE HIGH IS SHIFTING 
NE. HOWEVER STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAILING OFFSHORE OF 
CALIFORNIA HAVE PRODUCE N AND NW SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO INTRUDE 
N PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS TO 11 FT ALONG THE N BORDER 
NEAR 130W THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
SWD AND DECAY NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE 
FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADES ARE FOUND S 
OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICS...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE 
MONSOONAL FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 120W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT 48 
HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING