000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N81W TO 8N105W. ITCZ 8N105W 10N115W  
3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N 
BETWEEN 97W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W HAS FLATTENED SOME. DOWNSTREAM UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NW MEXICO 
NEAR 31N108W S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
A 90-115 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION FROM 23N117W ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO 
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 125W. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. OTHERWISE IN THE 
TROPICS S OF 20N BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 100W-114W.

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 110W. 
THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NE WINDS 20 KT N OF 
AROUND 25N W OF 130W. THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES FRI AND WIND 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT...HOWEVER LARGE NLY SWELLS TO 11 FT 
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 26N W OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE HAS DECREASED AND THE 
TRADES ARE LESS THAN 20 KT.

$$
DGS