000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED FROM LOW PRES NEAR 08N87W 1010 MB TO 
08.5N104W TO 07.5N121W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... 
CONTINUING ON TO 04N130W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06.5N TO 10N E OF 89W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED S OF MONSOON TROUGH TO 
03N BETWEEN 88W AND 102W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 210 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 121. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 93.5W TO THE 
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A RELATIVELY STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS 
TODAY...WITH A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN SPANNING THE AREA E 
OF 150W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS JUST W OF THE 
FORECAST AREA NEAR 20N146W....WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO 
NEAR 07N137W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF 
LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO NEAR 32N115W TO NEAR 
22N122W. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A RIDGE COVERING THE NW PORTION 
OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MAINLY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. PERSISTENT AND 
ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH E 
OF 120W IS AIDING IN MAINTAINING THIS RIDGING ALOFT. 

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N141W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE TO 
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS NEAR 19N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT  
BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ALONG CALIFORNIA AND THE 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS N OF LINE 29N127W TO 27N137W. THIS WEATHER 
PATTERN AND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU AS 
STRONGER HIGH PRES SETTLES N OF AREA. MEANWHILE A DIMINISHING 
BELT OF FRESH NE TRADES PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGE FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 130W. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 24 HOURS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
LIGHT TO MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE S. SEAS E OF 120W AND 
GENERALLY 6 FT OR LESS...AND ARE BEGIN DOMINATED BY PULSES OF 
SMALL SOUTHERN HEMI LONG PERIOD SWELL. THESE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK 
WEEK.

$$
STRIPLING