000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N78W TO 05N90W TO 08N97W TO 06N105W 
10N116W TO 08N122W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N122W TO 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG S OF MONSOON TROUGH TO 02N 
BETWEEN 85W AND 94W AND WITHIN 200 NM BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W...AND 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 127W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE N WATERS. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO NEAR 25N124W. 
SW FLOW...SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH WIND MAXIMA OF 70-90 KT 
IS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS ALL 
THE WAY TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. ANOTHER CUT-OFF 
LOW IS JUST W OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 22N145W. IN BETWEEN... 
THERE IS A RIDGE COVERING THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
OTHERWISE...MAINLY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS FLOW IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND 
THE MONSOON TROUGH

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N142W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SE TO NEAR 
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ALONG CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH NORTHERLY 
WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W...AS CAPTURED BY THE MOST 
RECENT EXPERIMENTAL OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS WEATHER 
PATTERN AND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU AS A 
STRONGER HIGH PRES SETTLES N OF AREA. MEANWHILE A BELT OF FRESH 
NE TRADES PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 
06N TO 20N W OF 130W. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH SEAS OF 7 FT OR LESS. 
THESE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REST OF 
THE WORK WEEK.

$$
GR