000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N79W TO 10N96W TO 07N110W TO 
09N118W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
05N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W...FROM 03N TO 
08N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 09N106W TO 12N112W TO 09N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS 
REACHING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N120W TO 26N129W. SW 
FLOW...WITH WIND MAXIMA OF 80-100 KT...IS TRANSPORTING MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS ALL THE WAY TO ACROSS THE 
FAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO 
W TEXAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N139W EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE WATERS TO 
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ALONG CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH NORTHERLY 
WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W AS CAPTURED BY A RECENT 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND CONDITIONS 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. MEANWHILE A BELT OF FRESH NE TRADES 
PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 06N TO 14N 
W OF 130W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING WESTWARD...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING 
TO 15 KT BY 48 HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 11N118W TO 05N123W AS SEEN BY THE 
SAME ASCAT PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE W DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH SEAS OF 7 FT OR LESS. 
THESE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
MID-WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY