000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070308 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAY 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED O000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 11N85W TO 08N95W TO 10N105W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N105W TO 11N113W THEN RESUMES FROM 05N122W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N87W TO 06N88W TO 07N91W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N107W TO 06N116W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N119W TO 04N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS REACHING FROM THE MEXICO/CALIFORNIA BORDER TO 30N120W TO 26N136W. SW FLOW OF 55-80 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS TRANSPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS ALL THE WAY TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. OTHERWISE MAINLY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE WATERS THROUGH 32N132W TO 17N109W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO RESULT IN FRESH NE-E WINDS OVER ROUGHLY THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...AS MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT AND OSCAT PASSES. MEANWHILE...A BELT OF FRESH NE TRADES PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 129W AND 137W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING WESTWARD...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING A BIT TO 15 KT BY 48 HOURS. A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS GENERATING NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. THESE WINDS AND PROLONGED NORTHERLY FETCH CONTINUE TO GENERATE SEAS WHICH ARE PROPAGATING INTO THE NE WATERS IN THE 9-10 FT RANGE AS NW-N SWELL. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RECENT EXPERIMENTAL OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRES THAT WAS NEAR 06N117.5W HAS DISSIPATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING FROM 11N116W TO 05N119W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS OF 7 FT OR LESS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THESE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUE. $$ LEWITSKY