000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 10N105W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N121W TO 
03N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS N OF 03N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W...AND ALSO S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO 02N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 05N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS 
REACHING FROM THE CHANNEL ISLANDS OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 32N119W TO BEYOND 25N140W. SW FLOW OF 50-75 KT AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS TRANSPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE 
TROPICS ALL THE WAY TO ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND 
INTO NW OLD MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
10N102W...AND MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS S 
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...1034 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE WATERS 
THROUGH 32N130W TO 17N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
RIDGING AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN FRESH NE-E WINDS OVER ROUGHLY THE NW 
THIRD OF THE AREA...AS MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER 
PASS. MEANWHILE...A BELT OF FRESH NE TRADES PREVAILS ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 125W AND 
135W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING A BIT TO 15-20 KT BY 
48 HOURS.

A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COAST IS GENERATING NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE N OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS. THESE WINDS AND PROLONGED NORTHERLY FETCH CONTINUES TO 
GENERATE SEAS WHICH ARE PROPAGATING INTO THE NE WATERS IN THE 
9-10 FT RANGE AS NW-N SWELL. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A 1010 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR O6N117.5W 
WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH FROM 11N116W THROUGH THE LOW TO 
04N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180-240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW AND 
TROUGH WILL DRIFT TO THE W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS OF 7 FT OR LESS 
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THESE FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

$$
LEWITSKY