000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N100W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 11N100W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES 06N117W TO 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 116W AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. 
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 90W AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 
92W AND 97W...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 
30N121W THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 24N140W. STRONG SW FLOW 
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS ALL THE WAY NE INTO PARTS OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED NEAR 10N102W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF 
THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW PRES 
LOCATED AT 06N117W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO DOMINATES THE TROPICS 
E OF 110W SUPPORTING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN 02N AND 
08N. 

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 
35N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE AREA COVERING THE N WATERS 
MAINLY N OF 17N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH 
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF 
CORTEZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS W OF LINE 
30N122W TO 20N130W...AS INDICATED BY THE MOST RECENT ASCAT AND 
OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. MEANWHILE...A BELT OF FRESH NE 
TRADES PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 08N 
TO 20N W OF 130W.

A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COAST IS GENERATING NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE...CREATING NW SWELL 
WHICH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NE WATERS...WHERE SEA 
HEIGHTS ARE IN 9-10 FT RANGE. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 
THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS SW. 

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR O6N117W WITH AN 
ATTENDANT TROUGH FROM 10N116W TO THE LOW TO 04N117W. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ 
ITCZ SECTION. THE LOW PRES AND TROUGH WILL DRIFT WWD IN TANDEM  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   

MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS OF 7 FT OR LESS 
DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS E OF 110W. THE EXCEPTION IS AN AREA 
OF 8 FT SEAS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W ASSOCIATED WITH CROSS 
EQUATORIAL S SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 15-16 SECOND RANGE. THIS 
SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO S OF 22N LATE 
MON.

$$
GR