000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 11N88W TO 06N100W TO 
08N111W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
05N116W TO 04N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 86.5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N92W TO 07N98W. 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N130W TO 
02N124W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...N OF 26N...A VERY BROAD OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN STRADDLES 
BOTH SIDES OF N AMERICA...CENTERED ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 
ABOUT 96W. SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY 
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...THE WESTERN-MOST BEING A NEGATIVELY 
TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE ARIZONA TO ALONG 
THE SW COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N106W. MULTI-LAYERED MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO CLEAR 
OUT ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE SHIFTING NE TO ACROSS NORTHERN 
MEXICO. TO THE W OF THIS FEATURE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
CENTERED ACROSS W COASTAL PORTIONS OF N AMERICA N OF 26-27N... 
WHILE A BROAD AND RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 11N-26N W OF 113W.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...1036 MB HIGH PRES WELL NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 38N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE AREA 
NEAR 32N130W CONTINUING SE TO NEAR 19N113W. A DRY FRONTAL ZONE 
WITH REINFORCING COOL AND DRY AIR ENTERED THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS 
BOUNDARY HAS INDUCED A ZONE OF 20 KT NE WINDS W OF A LINE FROM 
30N118W TO 21N130W...ALONG WITH FRESH NW WINDS FROM 24N-27N W OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE A BELT OF FRESH NE 
TRADES PREVAIL S AND SE OF THE RIDGE FROM 04N-11N W OF 124W. 

A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COAST IS GENERATING NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE...CREATING NW SWELL 
WHICH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NE WATERS...WHERE SEAS 
WERE REACHING 9 TO 10 FT ALONG 30N...AND UP TO 13 FT WELL 
OFFSHORE OF SAN DIEGO. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT 
SW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRESH WINDS 
ALSO SHIFTING TO THE W AND SW ACROSS OUR AREA.

1011 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 06N115W WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH FROM 
11N112W TO THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS LOW AND TROUGH 
WILL DRIFT W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH NO DEVELOPMENT 
ANTICIPATED.

LIGHT TO MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE SE PORTION OF 
THE AREA...GENERALLY E OF 111W...AND CONTINUES TO FORCE ACTIVE 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THESE CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PULSE OF VERY LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL WILL 
PROPAGATE N OF THE EQUATOR COVERING THE WATERS S OF 03N BETWEEN 
95W AND 110W IN 24 HOURS...THEN WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 
48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY