000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N88W TO 07N98W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N98W TO 08N112W TO 04N124W 
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...AND 
ALSO FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90-120 NM S OF A LINE FROM 07.5N80W TO 90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 
NM N OF THE SAME LINE W OF 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR THE 
CHANNEL ISLANDS THROUGH 30N123W TO 28N130W TO 27N140W. THIS 
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS IN 
ACROSS THE NW. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT AS 
SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE WINDS WILL 
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE A PACKET OF 
NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE S REACHING 22N BY 
48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS 
INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE TRADES 
WILL NOT VARY MUCH IN STRENGTH OR COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS JUST BEYOND 48 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS WILL BE LESS 
THAN 8 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY