000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N94W TO 06N100W TO 06N109W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N109W TO 
05N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO 02N87W...AND ALSO N OF 
06N E OF 79W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N85W TO 07N92W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REACHES FROM SW CALIFORNIA NEAR POINT 
CONCEPTION THROUGH 32N121W TO 28N138W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS IN ACROSS THE NW WATERS. FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NW CORNER WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH 
RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A 
PACKET OF NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT WILL INTRUDE INTO THE AREA N OF 
28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY 48 HOURS WITH A PERSISTENT 
NORTHERLY FETCH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS HOLDING IN PLACE.

AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS 
INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE TRADES 
WILL NOT VARY MUCH IN STRENGTH OR COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS JUST BEYOND 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY