000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041802 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI MAY 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 06N104W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE TO 04N112W TO 03N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-116W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SW TO ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO AND SW TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 22N114W. IT THEN CONTINUES S TO NEAR 14N114W. A SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW PORTION OF CONUS TO 26N120W AND TO 20N123W WHERE IT BLENDS INTO BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT COVERS THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 120W. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE FAR NE PACIFIC REGION N OF THE AREA SW THROUGH 32N134W TO AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE] DISCUSSION AREA AT 23N150W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE EQUATOR AT 128W. THE SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS W OF THIS SAME LINE AS NOTED BY THE LAYERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW AND W TO THE W OF THE SAME LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY LIFT NE WHILE MERGING WITH THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE CIRCULATION ITSELF BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO DURING SAT. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA FROM 32N123W SW TO 30N130W TO 28N140W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1034 MB NW OF THE REGION AT 37N149W IS ALLOWING FOR NE 20 KT WINDS TO EXIST N OF THE FRONT. THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS ALREADY BRIDGING SEWD ACROSS THE FRONT...AND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N136W TO 26N125W AND TO NEAR 20N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N AND W OF ABOUT 119W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRES IN THE TROPICAL BELT REGION IS ALLOWING FOR NE 20 KT TRADE WINDS TO EXIST IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 07N TO 26N W OF 124W. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER AS THE 1034 MB HIGH SHIFTS NE DURING THIS SAME TIME THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE FAR NE WATERS RESULTING IN NW TO N 20 KT WINDS TO FILTER SWD TO NEAR 27N AND BETWEEN 117W-124W. STRONGER NW TO N WINDS OF GALE FORCE WILL BEGIN JUST N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 118W-129W IN 24 HRS AND BETWEEN 120W-128W IN 48 HRS. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE SEAS UP TO 10 FT BUILDING IN THE NE PORTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W-124W IN 24 HRS AND CONTINUING INTO 48 HRS. SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS FROM 12 UTC REVEALS A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NWD OVER THE SRN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND S TO 19N BETWEEN 106W-109W...BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THEN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 22N114W. IN THE TROPICS...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AT 06N115W. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0730 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED THIS CIRCULATION A BIT FURTHER E. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WWD THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HRS BEFORE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. IN THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA...ATMOSPHERE INSTABILITY IS LEADING TO DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 83W. LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR 04N102W. THIS IS UNDER THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS W TO E ALONG 06N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 07N115W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THAT OF THE ITCZ IS BEING ADVECTED SWWD IN THE UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS TO THE E OF ANTICYCLONE. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING W TO 83W. THIS IS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THAT VICINITY. AN AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SRN WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HRS S OF 06N AND BETWEEN 98-120W. $$ AGUIRRE