000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N101W TO 06N110W TO 04N117W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N117W TO 
02N130W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 110W 
AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 111W.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N84W TO 
03N90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
06N90W TO 02N98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 
85W AND 88W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER NW OLD MEXICO NEAR 31N107W SW TO A DEVELOPING 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 22N118W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 
18N120W. IN ITS WAKE...DEEP LAYER RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS SW THROUGH 24N127W TO 
16N135W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING RATHER DRY AND STABLE 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS N OF THE TROPICS. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY 
LIFT NE TO WELL INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE NEXT 
18-24 HRS...WHILE THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 22N117W ALSO LIFTS 
NE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 
24-36 HRS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NW 
OLD MEXICO BY 48 HRS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AND BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 29N140W...AND CONTINUES SE TO NEAR 
20N118W. WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 07N128W. ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED. AN AREA OF 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS S OF 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 
130W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE 
WATERS S OF 04N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BY 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS 7 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
TROPICAL NE PACIFIC REGION. A COLD FRONT JUST NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WILL BEGIN TO BRUSH THE FAR NW WATERS IN ABOUT 
18-24 HRS WHILE IT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING 
RIDGE ENTRENCHED NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. THIS PROCESS WILL USHER 
IN NE-E 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AND AS FAR E AS 
TO ALONG THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY 
SAT.

$$
LEWITSKY