000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031755 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 3 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 05N105W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N112W TO 
05N120W TO 07N127W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 115W 
AND ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 
128W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE  
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
88W AND 93W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 97W AND 102W.

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE SRN TIP OF A MID-LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS 
OFFSHORE NRN COSTA RICA WITHIN 45 NM OF 09N86W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NW
MEXICO SW TO A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 22N118W AND 
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 17N123W. IN ITS WAKE...DEEP LAYER RIDGING 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA SW TO 26N128W TO 14N136W. THE 
RIDGE IS MAINTAIN RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS N 
OF THE TROPICS. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE TO WELL INLAND
THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHILE THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION AT 22N118W ALSO LIFTS NEWD TO ACROSS SRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 36 HRS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN SWLY FLOW 
OVER NW MEXICO BY 48 HRS.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
29N140W...AND CONTINUES SE TO NEAR 21N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE
AREA N OF 18N W OF 116W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WEAK LOW
PRES OF 1008 MB AT 07N128W AND THE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN AN
AREA OF NE 20 KT WINDS FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 125W WITH SEAS UP
TO 8 FT. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE DURING 
THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AS THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH N OF THE 
REGION STRENGTHEN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS 7 FT OR LESS 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC REGION. A COLD FRONT JUST
NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL BEGIN TO BRUSH THE FAR NW WATERS
IN ABOUT 24 HRS WHILE IT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE ENTRENCHED NW TO SE OVER THE AREA. THIS PROCESS WILL USHER
N TO NE 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NRN WATERS...AND AS FAR E AS TO 
ALONG THE COAST OF NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT 
MORNING.

$$
AGUIRRE