000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 3 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 06N109W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 06N109W TO 08N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. LATEST
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS NEARLY 
ALL OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS NEAR
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 28N. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS UNTIL FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING...WITH SEAS 7 FT OR LESS ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
WILL APPROACH 30N140W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLIDE WESTWARD ALONG 
30N AS A DYING TROUGH THROUGH FRI. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 40N BEHIND THE TROUGH FRI THROUGH SAT. 
THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
AND SPREAD NORTHERLY SWELL TO 10 FT S OF 30N ON SAT...FROM STRONG
N-NW WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA. BUT UNTIL THEN...EXPECT BENIGN WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA.

$$
MUNDELL