000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N83W TO 05N94W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N94W TO 06N115W TO 07N130W 
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N87W TO 02N92W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W 
AND 100W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
115W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 134W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED W OF THE AREA NEAR 
31N147W WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THERE INTO THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 29N140W CONTINUING TO 19N122W. A SMALL 
AREA OF FRESH TRADES COVERS THE AREA FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 133W 
AS CAPTURED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. LINGERING 8 FT 
NW SWELL IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W GENERATED BY 20 KT 
WINDS N OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DECAYING MIXED NE AND SW SWELL TO 8 FT RESIDES 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW THIRD OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE 
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE AREA OF 8 FT SWELL SHRINKS TO THE S 
CENTRAL WATERS. BY 48 HOURS...SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS 
THE NE PACIFIC...HOWEVER FRESH NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FAR 
NW CORNER OF THE AREA AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IN THAT REGION 
REBUILDS EASTWARD.

$$
LEWITSKY