000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 2 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 03N82W TO 07N110W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N113W TO 08N126W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 79W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO RECEDE WESTWARD NW 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EVIDENT FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 
32N118W TO 24N124W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS UNSEASONABLY WEAK ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS DEPICTED 
FROM COMPOSITE SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST 5 HOURS. HIGHEST 
WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT...AND ONLY AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS IS 
LOCATED N OF 20N AND W OF 125W. ALTIMETRY DATA ALSO SHOWS SEAS 
ARE LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE CURRENT 
TREND OF DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 
TO 48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE BASIN. 
A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W THU THEN SLIDE EASTWARD 
AS A DYING TROUGH ALONG 30N THROUGH FRI MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL 
GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BEHIND THE 
TROUGH...ALLOWING PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO REDEVELOP BY SAT AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...
EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 7 FT OR LESS ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC OCEAN...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA 
OF NORTHERLY SWELL TO 7-8 FT THIS EVENING THROUGH THU MORNING 
GENERATED BY FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST...AND A 
SMALL AREA OF 7-8 FT SW SWELL ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL