000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N97W 1009 
MB...THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 07N106W TO 04N120W TO 02N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 
04N TO 10N E OF 86W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 113W AND 118W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 135W AND 
137W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FAR NW MEXICO TO A 
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 24N123W THEN CONTINUES WWD TO NEAR 22N140W. 
STRONG SW WIND FLOW OF 70-90 KT IS NOTED S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE 
TROPICS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
NEAR 30N140W. FURTHER SOUTH...AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. UPPER DIFFLUENT BETWEEN A 
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN S AMERICA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS 
ROUGHLY ALONG 96W IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF 
100W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM NEARLY 
STATIONARY 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 34N147W TO 20N110W. 
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WESTWARD AS THE HIGH WEAKENS 
AND SHIFTS W. A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE WATERS AND WILL 
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WILL 
BECOME WEAK AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NW CORNER 
OF THE REGION BY THU. THE FRONT THEN WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG 
30N AS A DYING FRONTAL TROUGH FRI. 

LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 FT OR LESS CAN BE 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY WED EVENING...AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 KT BY SAT 
AS A 1036 MB HIGH PRES SETTLES N OF AREA. N WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BRING NW SWELL TO AROUND 7-8 FT TO THE 
N WATERS MAINLY N OF 27N AND E OF 125W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL RAISE SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT S 
OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W ON WED...AND S OF 12S BETWEEN 105W 
AND 125W ON THU...BUT OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE 
RELATIVELY BENIGN ACROSS THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC OCEAN.

$$
GR