000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 1 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N88W TO 07N93W TO 
07N101W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N101W TO 06N122W TO 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM NEARLY STATIONARY 1032 MB HIGH 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 34N147W TO 21N122W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE 
TO ERODE WESTWARD AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W THU...THEN SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG 
30N AS A DYING TROUGH FRI. BECAUSE OF TROUGHING IN THE LOCATION 
WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NORMALLY FOUND...THE PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME VERY WEAK WED THROUGH SAT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS 7 FT OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN BY WED EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI 
OR SAT UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
FRESH N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL ENHANCE N SWELL 
TO AROUND 7-8 FT AT TIMES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 30N E OF 120W
AND SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE 7-8 FT NEAR THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 110-120W ON THU...BUT OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN ACROSS THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC OCEAN.

$$
MUNDELL