000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 02N100W TO 04N105W. ITCZ 
STRETCHES FROM 04N105W TO 06N115W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 113W 
AND 124W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO O7N E OF 81W. 
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THESE TWO AREAS 
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG 1034 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 32N138W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
FEATURE AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING FRESH NW WINDS 
IN A BROAD AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND 130W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED 
THESE WIND SPEEDS. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS ALSO MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 04N TO 27N W OF 
130W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.  THE AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT W-NW AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE REGION OF HIGHEST 
TRADES AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF 132W BY MON. 

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
WILL SPREAD NW SWELL S OF 30N LATER TODAY...WITH COMBINED SEAS 
REACHING 12-13 FT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD 
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT N 
OF 2ON BETWEEN 115W AND 130W LATE SUN. 

E OF 110W...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT ARE 
NOTED WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 13-15 
SECOND RANGE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
GR