000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI APR 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 04N99W TO 07N103W THEN ITCZ TO 
08N110W TO 03N124W TO 03N132W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS E OF 95W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 105 NM N OF AXIS FROM 124W TO 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 29N113W TO 14N133W MAINTAINS DRY 
MODERATELY SUBSIDING AIR MASS ALOFT W OF AXIS.  BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATIFIED CLOUDS SPREAD THROUGHOUT AREA.  
PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ADVECTED NE BY 60 KT JET CORE 
ON W SIDE OF SHARP DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 107W.  RIDGE 
ANCHORED IN WEAK ANTICYCLONE AT 08N106W. 

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM GULF OF HONDURAS TO 06N97W 
WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITHIN 300-450 NM OF AXIS.    

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB PUSHING STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE NW WINDS AGAINST CALIFORNIA W COAST WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 12-14 FT.  LESSER CONDITIONS SPILL S OF 30N ALONG  
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WITHIN 150 NM DOWN TO 23N.  HIGH PRES ALSO 
TIGHTENS GRADIENT AGAINST WELL DEFINED ITCZ INCREASING NE TRADES 
AND SEAS TO 11 FT. 
   
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL MAINTAINS ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 123W...BUT CLOSER SATELLITE SURFACE 
ANALYSIS FAILS TO IDENTIFY IT.  FEATURE MAY BE QUICKLY WEAKENING 
AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT.

$$
WALLY BARNES