000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 05N92W TO 06N103W THEN ITCZ TO LOW 
PRES AT 06N113W 1011 MB TO 05N120W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
83W AND 93W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N136W WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN ITS POSITION ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING FRESH TRADES FROM 05N TO 16N W OF 120W AS 
EVIDENCED FROM 0545 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW U.S. IS ALSO PRODUCING STRONG
NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH FRESH NW WINDS ALSO
S OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 12-13 FT N OF 
28N BETWEEN 116W AND 129W FROM SWELL GENERATED ALONG CALIFORNIA.

A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH BOUNDARY NEAR 06N113W. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW 
PERSISTING AS A SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALONG THE ITCZ BOUNDARY 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES W AT ABOUT 5-10 KT TO AROUND 
09N120W BY MON. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF GREATER 
ACTIVITY...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FURTHER W TO AROUND 125W 
THROUGH SUN.

$$
MUNDELL